የጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር ዐቢይ አሕመድ መንገድ ጠራጊ ማናቸው?

(በፍቃዱ ኃይሉ)

ከቅርብ ጊዜ ወዲህ የዐቢይ አሕመድ እርካብና መንበር በአባዱላ ገመዳ የተቀየሰ ይመስለኝ ጀምሯል። ምክንያት አለኝ። አባዱላ በተቀናቃኞቹ ጃዋር መሐመድም፣ ዐቢይ አሕመድም አድናቆት የተቸራቸው ሰው ናቸው። 

ጃዋር መሐመድ፣ 'አልፀፀትም' በሚለው መጽሐፉ በጣም ጥቂት ሰዎችን ነው በአዎንታዊ ያነሳው። ከነዚህ ሰዎች መካከል አባዱላ ገመዳ አንዱ ናቸው። በዚህ መጽሐፉ ላይ ጃዋር እንደሚለው፣ አባ ዱላ "ኦሮሚያን ከጫፍ እስከ ጫፍ ስለሚያውቃት ስለመጣችሁበት ወረዳ ጉዳይ ቦታዎችን እና ሰዎችን በስም እየጠራ ያዋራችኋል። ይህ ሁኔታው ለሰውዬው ፖለቲካ ያላችሁን ጥላቻ ለጊዜውም ቢሆን ረስታችሁ እንድታዳምጡት ይጋብዛል። አሜሪካ ሳለሁ የሰላማዊ ትግል ስልቶችን ለመቀየሰ የአገዛዙን የውስጥ አሠራር እና አመለካከት ለመረዳት ከፍተኛ ጉጉት ስለነበረኝ ከአባዱላ እና ከሌሎች ባለሥልጣናት ጋር ያዳበርኩት ግንኙነት ጠቅሞኛል" ብሏል።  ጃዋር ከመንግሥት ለውጡ አስቀድሞ ክፍተቱን ለመሙላት የሚችል ፓርቲ እንዲያቋቁም አባ ዱላ ምክር ለግሰውት እንደነበርም ጽፏል። እሱም በበኩሉ ከኦሕዴድ መኮንኖች ጋር ሲነጋገር "ለውጡን ቢመሩ" ብሎ ከጠቆማቸው ሰዎች አንዱ አባዱላ ገመዳ ነበሩ። እርሳቸው ላይ የነበረው ብቸኛው ቅሬታ ፖለቲካው ውስጥ የቆዩ በመሆናቸው እንደ ለውጥ መሪ አይወሰዱም የሚለው ነበር። 

ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር ዐቢይ አሕመድም የአባዱላን ሥም 'የመደመር መንገድ' በሚለው መጽሐፋቸው በአዎንታዊ መልኩ አንስተውታል። ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ በዚህ መጽሐፍ ለውጡ እንዴት እንደመጣ ያትታሉ። ሆኖም እኛ የምናውቀውን "ቲም ለማ" ጭራሹኑ አይጠቅሱትም። ይልቁንስ "መጋቢታውያን" እያሉ በሚጠሯቸው፣ በእርሳቸው እና ደመቀ መኮንን ተጠንስሶ ስለተከናወነው ለውጥ ይተርካሉ። እዚህ መጽሐፍ ላይ ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ ከአባዱላ ገመዳ “የተለየ ቅርበትና ወዳጅነት” እንደነበራቸው ጽፈዋል። ሌላው ቀርቶ ጄነራል ከማል ገልቹ እና ኮሎኔል አበበ ገረሱ ሠራዊቱን ከድተው የኤርትራ አማፂያንን ሊቀላቀሉ ሲሄዱ እንዳነጋገሯቸውና፣ አባዱላና እሳቸው በችግሩ ቢግባቡም የትግል ስልቱ ከውስጥ መሆን አለበት ብለው እንደወሰኑ በመጥቀስ ፈረንጆቹ እንደሚሉት “partners in crime” (ለወንጀል የሚተማመኑ ወዳጆች) እንደነበሩ ፍንጭ ይሰጡናል።

ዛሬ የብልፅግና ቁንጮ ተፅዕኖ ፈጣሪ የሆኑ ሰዎች ወይ ኦሮሞ አልያም ፕሮቴስታንት ናቸው። ስለዚህ ሁኔታ ከአንድ እጅግ ተፅዕኖ ፈጣሪ የኦሮሞ ፖለቲከኛ ጋር ስናወራ የነገረኝም ነገር በዚህም የአባዱላን ተፅዕኖ ሊኖር እንደሚችል ይጠቁማል። 'አባዱላ፣ የኦሮሞ ብሔርተኝነት ከኢስላሚስት ንቅናቄ ጋር እየተጋባ ሲቸግራቸው፥ የኦሮሞ ብሔርተኝነት ከኦርቶዶክስ ክርስትና ጋር ተኳርፏል፣ ከኢስላሚስቶች ጋር መወዳጀቱ ደግሞ ዓለም ዐቀፍ ቅቡልነት ይነሳዋል፣ ስለዚህ ፕሮቴስታንት ኦሮሞዎች ቢመሩት ይሻላል ብለው በማሰብ እነ ዐቢይ አሕመድን ወደ ፊት አመጧቸው' ብሎኛል። 

ተርዬ ኧስተበ (Terje Østebø) ባለፈው ግንቦት ባሳተመው ጥናታዊ ጽሑፉ ላይ ይህንን  የሚያጠናክር ሐተታ "አባዱላ... ብዙ ክርስቲያኖችን ወደፊት በማምጣት በምዕራባውያን ዘንድ የኦሮሞ ፖለቲካ ልኂቃኖች የሙስሊሞች የበላይነት አለበት የሚለውን ገጽታ ለማስተካከል ሞክረዋል" በማለት ጽፏል። አባዱላ ወደ ፊት ካመጧቸው ፕሮቴስታንቶች  ውስጥ ለማ መገርሳ፣ ሽመልስ አብዲሳ፣ አዳነች አቤቤንና ራሳቸው ዐቢይ አሕመድን ጨምሮ ብዙዎቹ ፕሮቴስታንቶች ነበሩ ይላሉ ተመራማሪው። አባዱላም እኤአ በ2009 ከኦርቶዶክስ ወደ ፕሮቴስታንት መቀየራቸውን ጥናቱ ይጠቅሳል። 

ፋክት መጽሔት ላይ፣ ጋዜጠኛ ተመስገን ደሳለኝ ከለውጡ ዓመታት በፊት ዐቢይ አሕመድ የማዕከላዊ ኮሚቴን ተቀላቅለው የአባዱላን ውለታ ለመመለስ እየሠሩ ነው በሚል በጨረፍታ ይጠቅሳቸዋል። በወቅቱ የጋዜጠኛው ግምት አባዱላ በኢሕአዴግ የውስጥ ለውስጥ ሽኩቻ ዐቢይን እየተጠቀሙበት እንደሆነ ነበር። ሆኖም፣ እርሳቸው ዐቢይን ወደ ፊት እያመጡ፣ ወይም ዐቢይ ለራሳቸው መንገድ እየጠረጉ፣ ወይም እርስ በርስ እየተናበቡ እየሠሩ ይሁን አይሁን ለማረጋገጥ ይከብደናል። ነገር ግን በውጤቱ ስንመዝነው፣ በአንድም በሌላም መልኩ አባዱላ ለዐቢይ አሕመድ እርካቡ ነበሩ ማለት የምንችል ይመስለኛል።

The Return to Rule by Law: The Case of Draft CSO Law in Ethiopia

(Befekadu Hailu)

[The original version of this piece is written in Amharic; please read the Amharic version for accuracy.]

The Ministry of Justice in Ethiopia introduced a draft revision of the Civil Society Organizations Proclamation, which was adopted in 2019. This law, which was enacted in the wake of Ethiopia’s political transition, replaced the previous “repressive” proclamation. However, the gradual erosion of the rights granted in the Proclamation of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and other proclamations issued during the transition period has raised serious concerns. In this brief article, I will provide an overview of the journey of regression in legal reforms that we once cherished a few years ago. I will also present a comparison of the revised draft with the current and the repealed proclamations, allowing readers to make their judgments.

Introduction

The Advisory Council for Legal and Judiciary Reform, established in 2018, was tasked with reviewing dozens of repressive laws through a process that involved several task forces of experts, stakeholders’ consultations, and popular consent. The most significant achievement in the last political transition was the revision of these repressive laws. Among the laws reviewed by the council were the Proclamation on Civil Society Organizations, the Proclamation on Anti-Terrorism, the Proclamation on Media, and the Proclamation on Election and Political Parties. Indeed, the process was not without its flaws; the drafts prepared by the experts were first reviewed by the Attorney General, then by the Council of Ministers, with some of the original drafts of some provisions amended, and then by the House of People’s Representatives; on the other hand, drafts such as the “Freedom of Access to Information” bill were never approved at all. However, the laws that were drafted by the Council’s task forces and approved by the House had better public acceptance. It was believed that this period would replace the previous rule by law or legal repression with the rule of law.

Soon after (as the transitional government began to consolidate its power and engage in power struggles with its adversaries), it began to narrow the civil space that had started to improve under the law through illegal restrictions; we have seen the laws being violated on several occasions. For example, although the law specifies that the board members of the Ethiopian Media Authority should not be appointed from a political party, it was openly violated, and members of the Prosperity Party were appointed. Similarly, ACSO imposed a not-legally-sound suspension on five local CSOs. Now, the issue has further escalated, and the laws have been subjected to governmental scrutiny, without assessing their effectiveness on society and governance. The draft revision of the Media Law and the Civil Society Organizations Proclamation are examples of this regression. It has been previously reported that the revision of the Media Law extends the authority of the executive branch of the government and narrows the civic space.

The Repression of CSOs

The amendment of the Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) law in 2019 was welcomed by almost all stakeholders. However, as conflicts proliferated across Ethiopia and as civil society members began to hold the government accountable, the government turned its back on them. Furthermore, CSOs were particularly targeted during the Tigray conflict. The crackdown on CSOs included international aid organizations. Three international organizations were suspended during the Tigray war, amid allegations of spreading disinformation. The local Peace and Development Center (PDC) was also suspended, and its leaders were briefly imprisoned.

Following the cessation of hostilities in the Tigray war through a peace agreement, and the subsequent escalation of the Amhara region conflict, ACSO suspended the registration of human rights organizations for several months without providing any specific reasons. In addition, existing organizations were subjected to bureaucratic pressure to change their objectives related to rights and democracy when they attempted to amend their bylaws. Individuals claiming to be members of the security forces have also begun to target and intimidate members and leaders of CSOs. As a result, many leaders and members of civil society organizations were forced into exile.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abiy, in his July 2024 Q&A with the House of People’s Representatives, called for a review of the human rights proclamation, institutions, and practices. In his speech, he made a sweeping statement, saying, “I won’t tell you what will happen if we allow a force that we don’t pay salaries to, but other forces have, and that reports to other forces.” This speech sent a shock wave to CSO members. A few months after the Prime Minister made his allegation, the Authority of CSOs (ACSO) suspended five human rights organizations for about three to four months, citing political reasons. Although the suspension was lifted through the mediation of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, all CSOs have continued to experience the chilling effect and operate below their capacity.  

Eventually, the Ministry of Justice has finalized its preparations for revising the CSOs Proclamation and is facilitating consultation forums among selected groups. The revised draft, in addition to narrowing the civic space, is similar to the repealed law due to its repressive provisions. To illustrate the stark contrast, I have picked four examples and presented them for comparison as follows.

ሕጋዊ አፈና እንደገና፤ የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች አዋጅ ክለሳ ጉዳይ

(በፍቃዱ ኃይሉ)

[For English Click Here] ፍትሕ ሚኒስቴር በ2011 የፀደቀውን የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች አዋጅ ለመከለስ ረቂቅ አውጥቶ የተመረጡ ባለድርሻ አካላትን እያወያየ ነው። የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካዊ ለውጥ በመጣ ማግስት የወጣው ይህ ሕግ፣ የቀድሞውን “አፋኝ” የተባለለትን አዋጅ የተካ ነበር። ይሁንና የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች አዋጅን ጨምሮ ሌሎችም በለውጡ ሰሞን የወጡት አዋጆች ቀስ በቀስ እየተከለሱ መሆኑ ከፍተኛ ስጋት ፈጥሯል። በዚህ አጭር መጣጥፍ፣ ከሕግ ማሻሻያ (legal reform) ወደ ኋላ እየተመለስንበት ያለውን አገራዊ ሒደት በወፍ በረር እቃኛለሁ። በተጨማሪም፣ የክለሳ ረቂቁን፣ ከአሁኑ አዋጅ እና ከተሻረው አዋጅ ጋር በንፅፅር በማቅረብ፣ አንባብያን ፍርዱን እንዲሰጡ ለማድረግ እሞክራለሁ።

መግቢያ

በ2010 የተቋቋመው የሕግና ፍትሕ ጉዳዮች ማሻሻያ አማካሪ ጉባዔ ደርዘን የሚሆኑ አፋኝ ሕጎችን፣ በበርካታ የባለሙያዎች ግብረ ኃይል ጥናቶች፣ በባለድርሻ አካላት ምክክር እና ይሁንታ ለመከለስ በቅቶ ነበር። የወቅቱ የፖለቲካ ለውጥ ትልቁ እርምጃም የነዚህ ሕጎች መሻሻል ነበር። ጉባዔው ከከለሳቸው ሕጎች ውስጥ የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች አዋጅ፣ የፀረ ሽብርተኝነት አዋጅ፣ የሚዲያ እንዲሁም የምርጫ እና የፖለቲካ ፓርቲዎች አዋጅ ይገኙበታል። እርግጥ ነው፣ የክለሳው መንገድ እንከን አልባ አልነበረም፤ ባለሙያዎቹ የነደፏቸው ረቂቆች መጀመሪያ በጠቅላይ ዐቃቤ ሕግ፣ ቀጥሎም በሚኒስትሮች ምክር ቤት የተወሰኑ አንቀፆቻቸው ተቀይረው በሕዝብ ተወካዮች ምክር ቤት እንዲፀድቁ ተደርጓል፤ እንደ “የመረጃ የማግኘት ነፃነት” ያሉ ረቂቆች ደግሞ ጭራሹኑ ሳይፀድቁ ቀርተዋል። ይሁንና በምክር ቤቱ ተረቅቀው የፀደቁት ሕጎች ግን የተሻለ ሕዝባዊ ቅቡልነት ነበራቸው። ይህ ወቅት የቀድሞውን በሕግ የመግዛት (rule by law) ወይም የሕጋዊ አፈና አካሔድ በሕግ የበላይነት (rule of law) ይተካዋል ተብሎ ታምኖ ነበር።

ብዙም ሳይቆይ (የለውጡ መንግሥት ሥልጣኑን ማደላደል ሲጀምር (እና የሥልጣን ሽኩቻ ውስጥ ሲገባ) በሕጉ መሻሻል ማንሰራራት የጀመረውን የሲቪክ ምኅዳር በሕገወጥ አካሔዱ መልሶ ያዳክመው ጀመር፤ ሕጎቹ በተለያዩ አጋጣሚዎች ሲጣሱ ተመልክተናል። እንደ ምሳሌ፣ የኢትዮጵያ ሚዲያ ባለሥልጣን ቦርድ አባላት የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ አባል እንዳይሆኑ ቢደነገግም፣ ሕጉ በይፋ ተጥሶ የብልፅግና ፓርቲ አባላት ተሾመው ነበር። በተመሳሳይ የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች ባለሥልጣን ድርጅትም ሕጋዊ አግባብነት የሌለውና ፖለቲካዊ መግፍዔ ያለው እግድ አምስት አገር በቀል ድርጅቶች ላይ አሳልፎ ነበር። አሁን ደግሞ ጉዳዩ ተባብሶ የተሻሻሉት ሕጎች በቅጡ ተፈትሸው፣ ውጤታቸው ሳይመዘን ለክለሳ ተዳርገዋል። ለዚህ ማሳያ የሚሆኑት የሚዲያ ሕጉ ክለሳ እና የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች አዋጁ የክለሳ ረቂቅ ናቸው። የሚዲያ ሕጉ ክለሳ የአስፈፃሚውን አካል ሥልጣን በሚለጥጥ እና ምኅዳሩን በሚያቀጭጭ መልኩ መሆኑን ከዚህ በፊት ተግለጿል።

የሲቪል ማኅበረስቡ መገፋት ደረጃዎች

የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች አዋጅ መውጣት ብዙዎችን ያስደሰተ ነበር። ነገር ግን ግጭቶች እየተባባሱ ሲመጡ እና የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ አባላት መንግሥትን ለተጠያቂነት መጥራት ሲጀምሩ ግን መንግሥት ፊቱን አዙሮባቸዋል። በተለይ በትግራይ ጦርነት ወቅት ሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች ለከፍተኛ ውክቢያ ተዳርገው ነበር። ውክቢያው ዓለም ዐቀፍ የተራድዖ ድርጅቶችንም የጨመረ ነበር። ከዚህም ጋር ሦስት ዓለም ዐቀፍ ድርጅቶች ታግደው ነበር። በተመሳሳይ የሰላምና ልማት ማዕከል የተባለውም ተቋም ታግዶ መሪዎቹ ለተወሰነ ጊዜ ታስረው ነበር።

በኋላ ላይ የትግራይ ጦርነት በሰላም ድርድር ተፈትቶ፣ የአማራ ክልል ግጭት ካገረሸ በኋላ፣ የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች ባለሥልጣን ሰብዓዊ መብቶች ላይ የሚሠሩ ድርጅቶች ምዝገባ ባልተጠቀሰ ምክንያት አቁሞ ነበር። አልፎ ተርፎም፣ ነባር ድርጅቶች መተዳደሪያ ደንባቸውን ለማሻሻል ሲሞክሩ ከመብቶች እና ዴሞክራሲ ጋር የተያያዙ ዓላማዎቻቸውን እንዲቀይሩ ቢሮክራሲያዊ ጫና ይደረግባቸው ነበር። የፀጥታ አካላት አባል ነን የሚሉ ግለሰቦች የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶችን አባላት እና አመራሮች ያዋክቡ ጀመር። በዚህም፣ በርካታ የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች መሪዎች እና አባላት ለስደት ተዳርገዋል።

ይህ በእንዲህ እያለ፣ ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትር ዐቢይ በሐምሌ ወር 2016 ከሕዝብ ተወካዮች ምክር ቤት ጋር ባደረጉት ጥያቄ እና መልስ የሰብዓዊ መብቶች አዋጅ፣ ተቋማት እና አሠራር መፈተሽ ያስፈልጋል ብለው ነበር። በዚህ ንግግራቸው፣ “እኛ ደሞዝ የማንከፍለው፣ ሌሎች ኃይሎች የቀጠሩት፣ ለሌሎች ኃይሎች ሪፖርት የሚያደርግ” ኃይል ከፈቀድን ምን ሊፈጠር እንደሚችል አልነግራችሁም የሚል ጅምላ ፍረጃ አሳልፈው ነበር። ይህ ንግግራቸው የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶችን ያስደነገጠ ንግግር ነበር። ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ ይህንን ባሉ በወራት ውስጥ የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች ባለሥልጣን አምስት የሰብዓዊ መበቶች ተሟጋቾች ድርጅቶችን በሕዳር እና ታኅሣሥ ወር ላይ ፖለቲካዊ ምክንያት በመስጠት ሦስት እና አራት ወራት ታግደው እንዲቆዩ አድርጓል። እግዱ በኢትዮጵያ ሰብዓዊ መብቶች ኮሚሽን አማላጅነት ቢነሳም፣ ከዚያ ወዲህ የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶች በሙሉ የፍርሐት ቆፈን ይዟቸው ሥራቸውን በነጻነት ለመሥራት ተቸግረዋል።

በስተመጨረሻም፣ ፍትሕ ሚኒስቴር የሲቪል ማኅበረሰብ ድርጅቶችን አዋጅ ለመከለስ ዝግጅቱን አጠናቅቆ የምክክር መድረኮችን እያመቻቸ ነው። ክለሳው፣ የሲቪክ ምኅዳሩን የሚያጣብብ ከመሆኑም ባሻገር፣ በአፋኝነቱ ከተሻረው ሕግ ጋር ተመሳሳይነት አለው። ይህንን ለማሳየት፣ አራት ናሙናዎችን ወስጄ እንደሚከተለው ለንፅፅር አቅርባለሁ።

Addis Ababa: The Marginalized Center

 (Befekadu Hailu)

Can Addis Ababa city be entitled to self-identification and self-determination? It seems an easy question until you delve deeper into the political discourse surrounding the city, i.e., the tension between Addis Ababa's cosmopolitan reality and the ethnically defined structure of the Ethiopian federation. I am writing this essay with the belief that resolving the Addis Ababa puzzle will open the way to a solution for Ethiopia’s challenge of building a civic polity. 

Adanch Abebe, the Mayor of Addis Ababa, has convened a consultation with Addis Ababa residents on contemporary issues on June 11, 2025. The youth in the meeting were compartmentalized by ethnicity, each with their associated attire; some of these attires reflected religious identity. The fact that the youth are dressed in ethnic uniforms made the consultation meeting more like a pre-planned stunt show rather than a genuine and spontaneous consultation meeting between the city’s administration and its residents. However, what attracted me the most is the fact that these groupings reveal how the government perceives the residents of Addis Ababa. Yes, Addis Ababa is home to a diverse range of groups. Still, the regime prefers to view them in divided ethnic groups, as if the rules of ethnicity in homogeneous settlements can also apply to diverse and urban settings.  

In this piece, I will explain why both the EPRDF and the Prosperity Party are not able to resolve the issues of Addis Ababa residents unless they understand them as they are. 

The FDRE constitution and the charter of Addis Ababa both claim to enshrine self-governing rights of the city’s residents. Unfortunately, the political rhetoric is at odds with the actual practice. In reality, Addis Ababa is a city administered by the protectorate party. Addis Ababa, as much as it is privileged with its status as a capital or, as some call, a “crown city,” is a victim of over-ethnicized ideologies. In Ethiopia’s ethnic federation, regional states, special zones, and special woredas are demarcated along ethnic lines. Addis Ababa, a diverse urban settlement for over a century, has been denied its cosmopolitan identity and was forced to adhere to ethnic and linguistic rules. 

Unlike rural settlements, urban settlements are naturally heterogeneous. The ancestral origins of its residents are typically diverse, both ethnically and geographically. People with different religious views coexist side by side. Therefore, the rules that govern citizens of cities must always be civic and secular; the ethnolinguistic or cultural virtues that vary across communities cannot be used to rule cities harmoniously. However, this is especially true for all, especially in city politics, that political participation should not be limited by narrow principles of belonging to an ethnic group or a birthplace. This has resulted in two main challenges that I will explore further later: denial of self-identification and denial of self-determination. 

ጥያቄው ምንድን ነው? የኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካዊ አለመረጋጋት መንስዔዎች (እና የመፍትሔ ሐሳቦች)!

 (በፍቃዱ ኃይሉ)

 ይህን መጣጥፍ ያዘጋጀሁት እያስጴድ ተስፋዬ “ምክረ-ሀሳብ ለረጋ ፖለቲካዊ ስርአት” በሚል ላቀረበው ጽሑፍ መጋቢ መልስ ይሆን ዘንድ ነው። በቅድሚያ እያስጴድ ጊዜ ወስዶ እና አሰላስሎ “የተረጋጋ ስርዓተ ማኅበር ለመፍጠር እንቅፋት ሆነዋል” ያላቸውን ነጥቦች በመዘርዘር እና የመፍትሔ ሐሳቦችን በመሰንዘር ውይይት ለማነሳሳት በመሞከሩ ከልቤ ላመሰግነው እወዳለሁ። እንዲህ ዓይነት የሰከነ ውይይት እና ቆም ብሎ ለማሰላሰል የሚረዳ መጣጥፍ ማዘጋጀት በተለይ በዚህ ሁሉ ነገር በሚጣደፍበት እና የማኅበራዊ ሚዲያ ተደራሲዎች ትኩረት ባጠረበት ጊዜ አስቸጋሪ እንደሆነ እረዳለሁ። ሆኖም፣ የውይይቱ በረከት እንዳያመልጠኝ፣ እሱ በቀደደው የውይይት አጀንዳ ላይ ተመርኩዤ የኔንም ሐሳቦች እንደሚከተለው አቀርባለሁ። (ጽሑፉን በፒዲኤፍ ለማንበብ ይህንን ሊንክ ይከተሉ።)

ይህ ጽሑፍ ሦስት ዋና ክፍሎች አሉት። የመጀመሪያው ክፍል “የእያስጴድን አንብሮ” (Eyasped’s Thesis) እኔ በተረዳሁት ልክ አሳጥሬ የማቀርብበት ነው።  ሁለተኛው ክፍል አንብሮው ላይ ግምገማ የማቀርብበት ነው። ሦስተኛው ክፍል እያስጴድ ማካተት ነበረበት የምላቸውን “ተጨማሪ ሐሳቦች” የማቀርብበት ነው። 

1.     የእያስጴድ አንብሮ

የመጋቢ መልስ ሐሳቤን ከማቅረቤ በፊት የእያስጴድ አንብሮ (thesis) የያዛቸውን ጭብጦች፣ እኔ በተረዳሁት መልኩ ለማቅረብ እሞክራለሁ። መጣጥፉ በአራት ምዕራፎች የተቀነበበ ነው። የመጀመሪያው ምዕራፍ ኢትዮጵያውያን የተረጋጋ ስርዓት ማኖር ለምን እንደተሳነን ይተነትናል። ሁለተኛው ምዕራፍ ችግሩን የመመልከቻ መነፅር ያቀርባል። በሦስተኛው ምዕራፍ ወደ መፍትሔ የሚወስደንን ማዕቀፍ ያመላክት እና በአራተኛው እና የመጨረሻው ምዕራፍ አዲስ አገር ዐቀፍ የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ በመመሥረት ዘላቂ መፍትሔ ማምጣት እንደሚቻል ይደመድማል። (የእያስጴድን አንብሮ ጨምቄ በማቀርብበት እና በምገመግምበት ጽሑፍ ውስጥ አንዳንድ የቃላት አጠቃቀሞችን ለእኔ አጻጻፍ ዘዬ በተመቸ መልኩ እንደቀየርኳቸው ከወዲሁ ለማሳወቅ እወዳለሁ።) 

How Does a Changing World Order Change Ethiopia?

 (Befekadu Hailu) 

Historically, significant shifts in the global order have also profoundly impacted Ethiopia’s internal order. In the early 20th century, one of the key factors contributing to Ras Teferi Mekonnen's (later Haile Selassie I) rise over Lij Iyasu was his alignment during the First World War. Lij Iyasu, as the grandson of Menelik II, was entitled to inherit the throne upon the emperor's death in 1913. However, while he was trying to make local and international alignments, he chose to be aligned with the Ottoman Empire, Germany, and Austria-Hungary (the Central Powers); in contrast, Ras Tafari, the great-grandson of Sahle Silassie, the grandfather of Menelik II, aligned with Great Britain, the Russia Empire, and France (the Allied Powers). 

Lij Iyasu's perceived conversion to Islam and his connections with the Ottoman Empire and Somali nationalist leader Mohammed Abdullah Hassan, who resisted British and Italian colonialism, had concerned the Allied powers. They feared that his alliances could destabilize their colonies in the Horn of Africa and give the Central Powers a strategic advantage.  Conversely, Ras Tafari’s strategic loyalty to the Allied Forces earned him the support of Britain and France, who viewed him as a counter to Lij Iyasu's pro-Central Powers stance. They facilitated his rise by providing troops and using him as a mediator. In September 1916, the Allied powers, particularly Britain and France, actively supported the coup d'état that deposed Lij Iyasu. 

Ras Tafari then slowly but surely dismantled the decentralized power structure and created a centralized army and bureaucracy in his long years in power. Had Lij Iyasu won the power struggle, it is believed he would have promoted a multi-religious and decentralized political settlement. 

During World War II, Emperor Haile Selassie allied himself with the Allied Forces, which included the United Kingdom, United States, and USSR, against the Axis Powers, which included Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, and Imperial Japan. Italy had invaded Ethiopia, forcing the Emperor into political exile. This alliance proved beneficial for the Emperor, as he regained power in 1941 with the support of the United Kingdom's military. This alliance further aided Haile Selassie; the Allied Powers submitted a report to the United Nations, stating that Eritrea lacked national consciousness and the economic means to sustain independence. Additionally, the US lobbied in favor of Ethiopia, and the UN endorsed the federation of Eritrea with Ethiopia. 

The fall of Ethiopia’s Imperial system and the rise of a socialist regime were not isolated incidents. Instead, while domestic factors dictate changes, it was also heavily influenced by the changing world order. The decades after the Second World War were characterized by decolonization. The growing awareness among Ethiopians, particularly scholars and intellectuals, regarding anti-colonial struggles across Africa and the Global South fostered a heightened consciousness concerning Ethiopia's internal hierarchical power dynamics and economically exploitative systems. This exposure to Marxist, anti-colonial, and anti-imperialist discourse provided a framework for critical analysis, leading some intellectuals to conceptualize the southern and peripheral regions of Ethiopia as being in a relationship akin to internal colonialism. This perspective effectively challenged the legitimacy of the unitary and often idealized narrative of Imperial Ethiopia, thereby amplifying dissenting voices and contributing to the socio-political environment that ultimately facilitated the rise of a socialist regime in the 1974 revolution.

Similar to its rise, the fall of the Derg regime was also influenced by the changing global order. The Derg's primary patron, the Soviet Union (USSR), indeed experienced a decline in global influence culminating in its dissolution in 1991, marking the end of the Cold War. Simultaneously, armed groups opposing the Ethiopian central government, such as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), astutely observed the shifting international political landscape and strategically adopted the language of Western-style liberal democracy. As a result, the armed groups seized power and redefined the country's social contract, while Eritrea seceded. 

As I have briefly demonstrated above, although Ethiopian political actors have the agency and domestic political dynamics play their own roles, the global political landscape significantly influences regime changes, redefines political relationships, and the dominance of political actors.  Internal political changes in Ethiopia are therefore likely to occur as a result of shifts in the global order. The nature of these internal changes will depend on the actions and alignment of political actors in response to the evolving international situation.

How is the Global Order Changing?

The global landscape is undeniably in flux, with compelling arguments for a changing world order fueled by the rise of powers like China and India, a perceived decline in US hegemony, challenges to the liberal international order, increasing geopolitical tensions, the growing influence of non-state actors, technological disruptions, and the assertive voice of the Global South. 

The unipolar order led by the United States’ liberal democracy is now crumbling from the inside out. Trump’s administration decision to dismantle the US’s soft power, such as the USAID, and its trade war with the world, and most particularly with China, is speeding up the change into either a uni-multipolar order (a global system where there is one superpower with competing regional powers) or multipolar order (where multiple super powers competing each other) or one after the other. 

The United States remains the wealthiest country, boasting a vast military might; therefore, it is likely to maintain its global hegemony for some time to come. However, China’s unparalleled and ongoing economic and technological advancements will inevitably undermine American economic dominance. Additionally, the emergence of new regional powers in the Middle East will create a possibility of a multipolar order.

My Public Appeal: Voice of America Matters to Ethiopia

To the Government of the United States of America and all concerned,

As a friend of the free press from Ethiopia, I write this appeal with deep concern regarding the reported staff reduction and leave of Voice of America (VOA), which might lead to its shutdown. For decades, VOA has served as a vital lifeline of information for millions of people worldwide, particularly in countries where freedom of the press is suppressed and access to objective news is severely limited. Ethiopia is one country where VOA's role has been indispensable, primarily through its Amharic, Afaan Oromoo, and Tigrigna services. Now, these services are off-air following the reduction executive order.

My own life bears testament to the profound impact of VOA. Growing up in Ethiopia, I witnessed firsthand how successive regimes systematically censored critical information, denying citizens their fundamental right to know. In this environment of stifled voices, my parents, like countless others, would tune their radios to VOA to understand the real political developments shaping our country. VOA was not just a news outlet; it was a window to the truth, a beacon of hope in the darkness of censorship.

Later, as a human rights defender, I personally experienced the very information vacuum that VOA tirelessly worked to fill. Subjected to repeated harassment and imprisonment for advocating for fundamental rights, my story was often ignored or misrepresented by state-affiliated media. Weak independent media, understandably fearing repercussions, often shied away from reporting such sensitive news. But VOA was different. It consistently provided accurate and unbiased coverage of my experiences, ensuring that the world knew what was happening, that my voice, and the voices of many others, would not be silenced. Therefore, as much as my country owes it, I personally owe it to VOA.

My personal experience is far from unique. It is the shared reality of countless Ethiopians and many others across Africa and beyond who have relied on VOA for credible news and diverse perspectives in their own languages. VOA's commitment to delivering factual reporting, even in the face of authoritarian pressure, has empowered citizens, held power to account, and fostered a more informed public discourse.

The potential silencing of this crucial voice would be a devastating blow to those who depend on it most. In Ethiopia, where access to the free press remains a constant struggle, the absence of VOA's Amharic, Afaan Oromoo, and Tigrigna services would create a significant void, further limiting citizens' ability to access independent information and make informed decisions about their lives and their nation's future.

Therefore, I urgently appeal to the U.S. government to reconsider any decision leading to Voice of America's shutdown. I implore you to recognize VOA's immense value, not just as a source of news but as a defender of democratic values and a crucial supporter of freedom of information in countries like Ethiopia. Preserving VOA's services is not merely a matter of broadcasting; it is a commitment to upholding fundamental human rights and supporting the aspirations of people striving for a more just and open society.

VOA's legacy in Ethiopia is one of trust, reliability, and unwavering commitment to truth. I urge you to ensure that this legacy continues to shine brightly, providing vital service to those who need it most.

Sincerely,

Befekadu Hailu,
A Friend to the Free Press from Ethiopia.